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Possible impact on global oil supply
Iran remains a significant oil exporter, particularly to certain Asian markets. Any reduction in its exports could remove hundreds of thousands of barrels per day from global supply chains, depending on how strictly sanctions are enforced and how buyers respond.
However, the actual impact will depend on whether other producers within the OPEC group, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, choose to increase output to stabilize markets.
Markets react with caution
Oil traders are closely watching how aggressively the sanctions are enforced and whether exemptions or enforcement gaps emerge, as has happened in previous rounds of Iran-related restrictions. In past cycles, global supply disruptions were partially offset by rerouted trade flows and increased production elsewhere.
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